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First League · Russia
Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Veles host Volga Ulyanovsk in the First League (Russia) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.37, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Veles 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk.
Going into the match, Veles had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Volga Ulyanovsk had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Veles's last 10 and 4 of Volga Ulyanovsk's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Veles averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Volga Ulyanovsk averaged 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Veles and 0.98 from Volga Ulyanovsk. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 28%, against 39%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Veles (green) and Volga Ulyanovsk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veles | DLLDW | 1.30 | 1.10 | 60% | 40% |
| Volga Ulyanovsk | LLDDW | 1.00 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Jul 2026 · Veles 0–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.34 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 58% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.69 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.18 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.