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CONMEBOL Sudamericana · International
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vasco DA Gama host Boca Juniors in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana (International) on 21 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors.
Going into the match, Vasco DA Gama had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 4. Boca Juniors had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Vasco DA Gama's last 10 and 6 of Boca Juniors's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vasco DA Gama averaged 1.39 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Boca Juniors averaged 1.53 scored and 1.00 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Vasco DA Gama and 0.93 from Boca Juniors. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 26%, against 36%, 30% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vasco DA Gama (green) and Boca Juniors (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | LWDWW | 1.40 | 0.40 | 20% | 30% |
| Boca Juniors | WLDWW | 1.90 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Oct 2026 · Boca Juniors 0–1 Vasco DA Gama
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Vasco DA Gama Win | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.