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Ettan - Norra · Sweden
Vasalund vs Arlanda prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vasalund host Arlanda in the Ettan - Norra (Sweden) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vasalund 1–4 Arlanda.
Going into the match, Vasalund had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 18. Arlanda had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Vasalund's last 10 and 6 of Arlanda's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vasalund averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Arlanda averaged 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Vasalund and 2.24 from Arlanda. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 56%, against 38%, 25% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vasalund (green) and Arlanda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.