Home › League stats › Serie D - Girone D › Varesina vs Pro Patria
Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Varesina vs Pro Patria prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Varesina host Pro Patria in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Varesina 0–0 Pro Patria.
Going into the match, Varesina had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Pro Patria had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Varesina's last 10 and 7 of Pro Patria's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Varesina averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Pro Patria averaged 2.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Varesina and 1.59 from Pro Patria. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 48%, against 22%, 26% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Varesina (green) and Pro Patria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varesina | LLLDW | 1.40 | 1.60 | 70% | 60% |
| Pro Patria | LWWWW | 2.20 | 1.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.72 |
| Pro Patria Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Pro Patria HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.