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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Vaprus vs Trans Narva prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vaprus host Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vaprus 2–2 Trans Narva.
Going into the match, Vaprus had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 21. Trans Narva had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Vaprus's last 10 and 4 of Trans Narva's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vaprus averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Trans Narva averaged 0.31 scored and 2.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.72 goals from Vaprus and 0.95 from Trans Narva. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 20%, against 38%, 26% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vaprus (green) and Trans Narva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | LLLWW | 1.70 | 2.10 | 60% | 80% |
| Trans Narva | DLDLL | 1.50 | 1.70 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jul 2026 · Trans Narva 3–1 Vaprus
- 9 May 2026 · Vaprus 2–0 Trans Narva
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.