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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vaprus host Kalju Nomme in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 13 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vaprus 2–2 Kalju Nomme.
Going into the match, Vaprus had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 23. Kalju Nomme had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Vaprus's last 10 and 5 of Kalju Nomme's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vaprus averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kalju Nomme averaged 2.13 scored and 1.19 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from Vaprus and 1.62 from Kalju Nomme. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 39%, against 24%, 23% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vaprus (green) and Kalju Nomme (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | DLLLW | 1.40 | 2.30 | 70% | 80% |
| Kalju Nomme | LWWLL | 2.40 | 1.30 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Aug 2026 · Kalju Nomme 3–1 Vaprus
- 30 May 2026 · Vaprus 3–1 Kalju Nomme
- 26 Apr 2026 · Kalju Nomme 1–2 Vaprus
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Kalju Nomme Win | 53% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.