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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Utrecht vs Willem II prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Utrecht host Willem II in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Utrecht 3–1 Willem II.
Going into the match, Utrecht had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 28. Willem II had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Utrecht's last 10 and 7 of Willem II's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Utrecht averaged 1.82 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Willem II averaged 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.73 goals from Utrecht and 1.37 from Willem II. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 29%, against 63%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Utrecht (green) and Willem II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Utrecht Win | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.