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Primera División · Peru
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
UTC Cajamarca host Sporting Cristal in the Primera División (Peru) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: UTC Cajamarca 0–1 Sporting Cristal.
Going into the match, UTC Cajamarca had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 22. Sporting Cristal had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of UTC Cajamarca's last 10 and 6 of Sporting Cristal's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UTC Cajamarca averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Sporting Cristal averaged 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from UTC Cajamarca and 2.00 from Sporting Cristal. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 57%, against 25%, 26% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between UTC Cajamarca (green) and Sporting Cristal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | LLLLD | 1.10 | 2.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Sporting Cristal | WWWWW | 2.60 | 0.90 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Sporting Cristal 3–2 UTC Cajamarca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.