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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
USD Casatese vs Pistoiese prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
USD Casatese host Pistoiese in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: USD Casatese 0–3 Pistoiese.
Going into the match, USD Casatese had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 8. Pistoiese had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of USD Casatese's last 10 and 3 of Pistoiese's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home USD Casatese averaged 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Pistoiese averaged 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.68 goals from USD Casatese and 1.67 from Pistoiese. From that it rates a home win at 14%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 60%, against 20%, 26% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between USD Casatese (green) and Pistoiese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Casatese | WWLDW | 2.10 | 0.80 | 50% | 70% |
| Pistoiese | WWWWW | 2.10 | 0.40 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.26 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Pistoiese Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.72 |
| Pistoiese HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.