Home › League stats › Friendlies › USA vs Mexico
Friendlies · International
USA vs Mexico prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
USA host Mexico in the Friendlies (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Mexico to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: USA 3–0 Mexico.
Going into the match, USA had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 15. Mexico had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of USA's last 9 and 4 of Mexico's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home USA averaged 2.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Mexico averaged 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded across 1.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.33 goals from USA and 1.19 from Mexico. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 17%, against 33%, 27% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 38%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between USA (green) and Mexico (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.