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Friendlies · International
USA vs Canada prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
USA host Canada in the Friendlies (International) on 7 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: USA 1–0 Canada.
Going into the match, USA had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 15. Canada had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9, with 15 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of USA's last 10 and 3 of Canada's last 9; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home USA averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Canada averaged 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from USA and 1.18 from Canada. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 26%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between USA (green) and Canada (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| USA Win | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.