Home › League stats › Primera División › Universitario vs FBC Melgar
Primera División · Peru
Universitario vs FBC Melgar prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Universitario host FBC Melgar in the Primera División (Peru) on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar.
Going into the match, Universitario had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 16. FBC Melgar had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Universitario's last 10 and 5 of FBC Melgar's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Universitario averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home FBC Melgar averaged 1.25 scored and 0.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Universitario and 1.31 from FBC Melgar. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 31%, against 50%, 31% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Universitario (green) and FBC Melgar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | LWDWW | 1.90 | 1.60 | 70% | 80% |
| FBC Melgar | DWWLD | 1.60 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Apr 2026 · FBC Melgar 2–1 Universitario
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 79% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Universitario Win | 51% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.