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Liga Pro · Ecuador
Universidad Catolica vs Macara prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Universidad Catolica host Macara in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Universidad Catolica 0–1 Macara.
Going into the match, Universidad Catolica had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Macara had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Universidad Catolica's last 10 and 7 of Macara's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Universidad Catolica averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Macara averaged 1.21 scored and 1.16 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Universidad Catolica and 1.12 from Macara. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 31%, against 55%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Universidad Catolica (green) and Macara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | LWWWD | 1.80 | 1.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Macara | WWLWW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Aug 2026 · Macara 1–1 Universidad Catolica
- 24 Apr 2026 · Universidad Catolica 4–0 Macara
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Universidad Catolica Win | 53% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.