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Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Union St. Gilloise host OH Leuven in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven.
Going into the match, Union St. Gilloise had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 29 and conceding 8. OH Leuven had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Union St. Gilloise's last 10 and 5 of OH Leuven's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Union St. Gilloise averaged 2.62 goals scored and 0.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home OH Leuven averaged 1.00 scored and 2.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.10 goals from Union St. Gilloise and 0.84 from OH Leuven. From that it rates a home win at 81%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 6%, against 75%, 16% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Union St. Gilloise (green) and OH Leuven (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | WWWWW | 2.90 | 0.80 | 40% | 80% |
| OH Leuven | WDLLL | 1.20 | 2.60 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Union St. Gilloise 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Union St. Gilloise HT & FT | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.