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Primera B · Colombia
Union Magdalena vs Leones FC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Union Magdalena host Leones FC in the Primera B (Colombia) on 11 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Union Magdalena Win — Union Magdalena to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Union Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC.
Going into the match, Union Magdalena had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Leones FC had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Union Magdalena's last 10 and 6 of Leones FC's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Union Magdalena averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Leones FC averaged 0.50 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from Union Magdalena and 0.70 from Leones FC. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 18%, against 64%, 22% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Union Magdalena (green) and Leones FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | DWDDW | 1.10 | 1.20 | 70% | 40% |
| Leones FC | DLLDL | 0.70 | 1.70 | 60% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| Union Magdalena Win | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Union Magdalena HT & FT | 48% | 1.95 |
| 1-0 | 17% | 5.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.