Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction and preview

1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC · An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.20Market probability 78%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Union Berlin had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 25. 1. FC Köln had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of Union Berlin's last 10 and 7 of 1. FC Köln's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Union Berlin averaged 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home 1. FC Köln averaged 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Union Berlin and 1.83 from 1. FC Köln. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 43%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Union Berlin (green) and 1. FC Köln (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack43% – 57%

Defence31% – 69%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals41% – 59%

Overall strength46% – 53%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Union Berlin	LDDWW	1.10	2.50	40%	60%
1. FC Köln	WDLWD	1.70	1.40	70%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

27 Oct 2026 · 1. FC Köln 5–0 Union Berlin
2 May 2026 · Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Köln

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	74%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.50
BTTS Yes	61%	1.53
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.