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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Spain
Unión Adarve vs Móstoles prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Unión Adarve host Móstoles in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Unión Adarve 2–1 Móstoles.
Going into the match, Unión Adarve had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. Móstoles had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Unión Adarve's last 10 and 5 of Móstoles's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Unión Adarve averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Móstoles averaged 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Unión Adarve and 1.20 from Móstoles. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 33%, against 30%, 28% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Unión Adarve (green) and Móstoles (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Adarve | LDDDW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Móstoles | DWWWD | 1.10 | 1.20 | 50% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Móstoles Win | 41% | 2.15 |
| Móstoles HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.