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Copa Paulista · Brazil
União São João vs Grêmio Prudente prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
União São João host Grêmio Prudente in the Copa Paulista (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Grêmio Prudente to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: União São João 2–1 Grêmio Prudente.
Going into the match, União São João had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Grêmio Prudente had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of União São João's last 10 and 4 of Grêmio Prudente's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home União São João averaged 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Grêmio Prudente averaged 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from União São João and 0.83 from Grêmio Prudente. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 22%, against 45%, 30% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between União São João (green) and Grêmio Prudente (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União São João | DDWLW | 1.20 | 0.90 | 60% | 30% |
| Grêmio Prudente | DWDWW | 1.50 | 1.10 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Sep 2026 · Grêmio Prudente 0–0 União São João
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.27 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.