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Liga 3 · Portugal
União Santarém vs Lusitano Évora 1911 prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
União Santarém host Lusitano Évora 1911 in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 9 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — União Santarém to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: União Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911.
Going into the match, União Santarém had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Lusitano Évora 1911 had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of União Santarém's last 10 and 5 of Lusitano Évora 1911's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home União Santarém averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Lusitano Évora 1911 averaged 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from União Santarém and 0.74 from Lusitano Évora 1911. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 19%, against 29%, 29% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between União Santarém (green) and Lusitano Évora 1911 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Santarém | WWLLD | 1.10 | 1.40 | 40% | 40% |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | DLLWD | 0.80 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Lusitano Évora 1911 HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.