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Taça de Portugal · Portugal
União Santarém vs GIL Vicente prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
União Santarém host GIL Vicente in the Taça de Portugal (Portugal) on 14 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: União Santarém 2–2 GIL Vicente.
Going into the match, União Santarém had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 13. GIL Vicente had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of União Santarém's last 10 and 4 of GIL Vicente's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home União Santarém averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home GIL Vicente averaged 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from União Santarém and 1.35 from GIL Vicente. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 42%, against 12%, 23% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between União Santarém (green) and GIL Vicente (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Santarém | WWWLL | 1.30 | 1.30 | 30% | 50% |
| GIL Vicente | WDLLD | 1.00 | 0.80 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| GIL Vicente Win | 65% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.