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Segunda Liga · Portugal
União de Leiria vs Academica prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
União de Leiria host Academica in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — União de Leiria to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: União de Leiria 0–2 Academica.
Going into the match, União de Leiria had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 11. Academica had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of União de Leiria's last 10 and 5 of Academica's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home União de Leiria averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Academica averaged 1.69 scored and 1.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from União de Leiria and 1.39 from Academica. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 35%, against 49%, 27% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between União de Leiria (green) and Academica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria | WDWWW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
| Academica | WLLLW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.