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Liga MX U21 · Mexico
UNAM Pumas U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
UNAM Pumas U21 host Cruz Azul U21 in the Liga MX U21 (Mexico) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: UNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21.
Going into the match, UNAM Pumas U21 had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Cruz Azul U21 had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of UNAM Pumas U21's last 10 and 7 of Cruz Azul U21's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UNAM Pumas U21 averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Cruz Azul U21 averaged 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from UNAM Pumas U21 and 0.76 from Cruz Azul U21. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 15%, against 39%, 28% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between UNAM Pumas U21 (green) and Cruz Azul U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNAM Pumas U21 | DWDDL | 0.90 | 1.00 | 70% | 30% |
| Cruz Azul U21 | LLLWL | 1.40 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| UNAM Pumas U21 Win | 39% | 2.30 |
| 1-0 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.