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1. Lig · Turkey
Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ümraniyespor host Boluspor in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 14 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ümraniyespor Win — Ümraniyespor to win. It was published at odds of 1.42, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Ümraniyespor had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 15. Boluspor had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ümraniyespor's last 10 and 4 of Boluspor's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ümraniyespor averaged 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Boluspor averaged 0.17 scored and 2.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Ümraniyespor and 0.57 from Boluspor. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 12%, against 62%, 23% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ümraniyespor (green) and Boluspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ümraniyespor | DWLLL | 0.80 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
| Boluspor | LLDLL | 0.60 | 2.20 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Ümraniyespor Win | 64% | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 53% | 1.76 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.