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Ukraine vs Northern Ireland prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ukraine host Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland.
Going into the match, Ukraine had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 2. Northern Ireland had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4, with 3 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Ukraine's last 4 and 1 of Northern Ireland's last 4; 1 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ukraine averaged 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded across 0 matches; away from home Northern Ireland averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 50% for Ukraine, 29% for the draw and 22% for Northern Ireland once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ukraine (green) and Northern Ireland (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | DWLW | 1.00 | 0.50 | 25% | 25% |
| Northern Ireland | DWLW | 0.75 | 0.75 | 25% | 25% |
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.62 |
| Ukraine Win | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.