UD Ourense vs Barakaldo prediction and preview

The PunterPick prediction

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

UD Ourense host Barakaldo in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: UD Ourense 1–0 Barakaldo.

Going into the match, UD Ourense had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 11. Barakaldo had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of UD Ourense's last 10 and 5 of Barakaldo's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UD Ourense averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Barakaldo averaged 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded across 6.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from UD Ourense and 0.90 from Barakaldo. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 31%, against 26%, 28% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.

Form before the match

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

• UD Ourense form and statistics
• Barakaldo form and statistics
• Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics