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Persha Liga · Ukraine
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
UCSA host Yarud Mariupol' in the Persha Liga (Ukraine) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: UCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol'.
Going into the match, UCSA had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 18. Yarud Mariupol' had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of UCSA's last 10 and 5 of Yarud Mariupol''s last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UCSA averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Yarud Mariupol' averaged 1.73 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from UCSA and 1.71 from Yarud Mariupol'. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 57%, against 19%, 26% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between UCSA (green) and Yarud Mariupol' (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA | LDLWL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
| Yarud Mariupol' | DDWWL | 1.80 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Yarud Mariupol' Win | 54% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
| Yarud Mariupol' HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.