Home › League stats › First Division › UCD vs Longford Town
First Division · Ireland
UCD vs Longford Town prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
UCD host Longford Town in the First Division (Ireland) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: UCD 1–1 Longford Town.
Going into the match, UCD had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 21. Longford Town had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of UCD's last 10 and 5 of Longford Town's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UCD averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Longford Town averaged 1.93 scored and 1.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.35 goals from UCD and 1.87 from Longford Town. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 31%, against 54%, 23% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between UCD (green) and Longford Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCD | WLLDD | 2.10 | 2.10 | 90% | 80% |
| Longford Town | DWWLL | 1.80 | 1.70 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Longford Town 2–1 UCD
- 1 May 2026 · UCD 2–0 Longford Town
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| UCD Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.