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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Ucam Murcia vs Alcoyano prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ucam Murcia host Alcoyano in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Ucam Murcia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ucam Murcia 2–0 Alcoyano.
Going into the match, Ucam Murcia had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. Alcoyano had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ucam Murcia's last 9 and 3 of Alcoyano's last 10; 7 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ucam Murcia averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Alcoyano averaged 0.67 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Ucam Murcia and 0.79 from Alcoyano. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 19%, against 46%, 28% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ucam Murcia (green) and Alcoyano (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ucam Murcia | WLWWL | 2.00 | 1.44 | 67% | 78% |
| Alcoyano | WWWLD | 1.00 | 0.80 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.69 |
| Ucam Murcia Win | 46% | 1.95 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Ucam Murcia HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.