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Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina
UAI Urquiza vs Real Pilar prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
UAI Urquiza host Real Pilar in the Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar.
Going into the match, UAI Urquiza had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Real Pilar had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of UAI Urquiza's last 10 and 2 of Real Pilar's last 10; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home UAI Urquiza averaged 0.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Real Pilar averaged 0.80 scored and 1.13 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.75 goals from UAI Urquiza and 0.77 from Real Pilar. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 31%, against 29%, 31% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between UAI Urquiza (green) and Real Pilar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAI Urquiza | WDLLW | 0.80 | 1.20 | 40% | 20% |
| Real Pilar | WLWWL | 0.90 | 0.70 | 20% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 May 2026 · Real Pilar 2–1 UAI Urquiza
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.57 |
| Real Pilar Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 40% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.