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Liga MX · Mexico
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 12 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–3 Cruz Azul.
Going into the match, U.N.A.M. - Pumas had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 17. Cruz Azul had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 10 and 6 of Cruz Azul's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home U.N.A.M. - Pumas averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cruz Azul averaged 1.69 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.81 from Cruz Azul. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 44%, against 27%, 26% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between U.N.A.M. - Pumas (green) and Cruz Azul (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | LDLWL | 0.80 | 1.70 | 50% | 40% |
| Cruz Azul | DLLWW | 1.50 | 1.70 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 May 2026 · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Cruz Azul
- 22 May 2026 · Cruz Azul 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.