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Virsliga · Latvia
Tukums vs Riga prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tukums host Riga in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Riga Win — Riga to win. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tukums 0–2 Riga.
Going into the match, Tukums had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 19. Riga had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Tukums's last 10 and 7 of Riga's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tukums averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Riga averaged 2.16 scored and 1.21 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Tukums and 2.49 from Riga. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 70%, against 10%, 13% and 77% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tukums (green) and Riga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jul 2026 · Riga 3–1 Tukums
- 20 May 2026 · Tukums 1–3 Riga
- 9 Apr 2026 · Riga 3–3 Tukums
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Riga Win | 76% | 1.20 |
| Riga 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| Riga HT & FT | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.