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Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
TSV Hartberg host Austria Lustenau in the Bundesliga (Austria) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau.
Going into the match, TSV Hartberg had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Austria Lustenau had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of TSV Hartberg's last 10 and 7 of Austria Lustenau's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home TSV Hartberg averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Austria Lustenau averaged 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from TSV Hartberg and 1.11 from Austria Lustenau. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 19%, against 46%, 27% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between TSV Hartberg (green) and Austria Lustenau (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | WDDWW | 2.20 | 1.40 | 50% | 70% |
| Austria Lustenau | LWWLW | 1.70 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.