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Prva Liga · Serbia
TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
TSC Backa Topola host Grafičar in the Prva Liga (Serbia) on 5 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is TSC Backa Topola Win — TSC Backa Topola to win. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: TSC Backa Topola 4–1 Grafičar.
Going into the match, TSC Backa Topola had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Grafičar had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of TSC Backa Topola's last 10 and 7 of Grafičar's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home TSC Backa Topola averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Grafičar averaged 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.07 goals from TSC Backa Topola and 0.98 from Grafičar. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 8%, against 69%, 20% and 11% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between TSC Backa Topola (green) and Grafičar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSC Backa Topola | DDDWW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 80% | 60% |
| Grafičar | WLWLL | 1.50 | 1.80 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| TSC Backa Topola Win | 69% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.61 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| TSC Backa Topola HT & FT | 51% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| 2-0 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.