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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tristan Suarez host Quilmes in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Tristan Suarez to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tristan Suarez 0–0 Quilmes.
Going into the match, Tristan Suarez had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 4. Quilmes had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Tristan Suarez's last 10 and 2 of Quilmes's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tristan Suarez averaged 1.09 goals scored and 0.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Quilmes averaged 0.73 scored and 1.64 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.12 goals from Tristan Suarez and 0.31 from Quilmes. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 9%, against 43%, 34% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 91%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tristan Suarez (green) and Quilmes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | WDDDW | 1.40 | 0.40 | 30% | 30% |
| Quilmes | WLWLL | 1.20 | 1.00 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Quilmes 0–1 Tristan Suarez
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Tristan Suarez Win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.