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Serie D - Girone C · Italy
Triestina vs FC Obermais prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Triestina host FC Obermais in the Serie D - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Triestina 2–0 FC Obermais.
Going into the match, Triestina had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 17. FC Obermais had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Triestina's last 8 and 7 of FC Obermais's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Triestina averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home FC Obermais averaged 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Triestina and 1.21 from FC Obermais. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 29%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Triestina (green) and FC Obermais (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triestina | LDLDD | 0.88 | 2.13 | 63% | 50% |
| FC Obermais | DLDWL | 1.30 | 1.40 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.52 |
| Triestina Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Triestina HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.