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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Trento vs Folgore Caratese prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Trento host Folgore Caratese in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Trento 1–0 Folgore Caratese.
Going into the match, Trento had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Folgore Caratese had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Trento's last 10 and 7 of Folgore Caratese's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Trento averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Folgore Caratese averaged 0.78 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Trento and 0.63 from Folgore Caratese. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 15%, against 53%, 28% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Trento (green) and Folgore Caratese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trento | DDWDD | 1.30 | 0.70 | 40% | 50% |
| Folgore Caratese | LWDDL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Trento Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.85 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.