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First Division · Ireland
Treaty United vs UCD prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Treaty United host UCD in the First Division (Ireland) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Treaty United 0–4 UCD.
Going into the match, Treaty United had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. UCD had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Treaty United's last 10 and 9 of UCD's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Treaty United averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home UCD averaged 1.46 scored and 1.77 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Treaty United and 1.63 from UCD. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 40%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Treaty United (green) and UCD (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United | WLWLL | 1.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
| UCD | LLDDW | 1.70 | 2.10 | 90% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 Aug 2026 · UCD 1–2 Treaty United
- 17 Jul 2026 · Treaty United 1–2 UCD
- 24 Apr 2026 · Treaty United 0–3 UCD
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 51% | 1.83 |
| UCD Win | 43% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.