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Meistriliiga · Estonia
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Trans Narva host Kuressaare in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 14 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Trans Narva 0–1 Kuressaare.
Going into the match, Trans Narva had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 17. Kuressaare had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Trans Narva's last 10 and 5 of Kuressaare's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Trans Narva averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Kuressaare averaged 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Trans Narva and 1.19 from Kuressaare. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 40%, against 45%, 27% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Trans Narva (green) and Kuressaare (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | DDLDL | 1.70 | 1.70 | 50% | 50% |
| Kuressaare | WWDLL | 2.30 | 1.50 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Sep 2026 · Kuressaare 3–1 Trans Narva
- 16 Jun 2026 · Kuressaare 0–0 Trans Narva
- 18 Apr 2026 · Trans Narva 1–2 Kuressaare
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.