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Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction and preview
6 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Toulouse host Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 (France) on 6 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Toulouse had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Strasbourg had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Toulouse's last 10 and 8 of Strasbourg's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Toulouse averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Strasbourg averaged 1.38 scored and 2.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from Toulouse and 1.46 from Strasbourg. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 28%, against 46%, 25% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Toulouse (green) and Strasbourg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | LDWDW | 1.30 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
| Strasbourg | WLLLL | 1.80 | 2.00 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Toulouse Win | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.