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Major League Soccer · USA
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Toronto FC host CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer (USA) on 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal.
Going into the match, Toronto FC had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 20. CF Montreal had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Toronto FC's last 10 and 7 of CF Montreal's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Toronto FC averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home CF Montreal averaged 1.22 scored and 2.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.82 goals from Toronto FC and 1.22 from CF Montreal. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 25%, against 49%, 25% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Toronto FC (green) and CF Montreal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | LLLWD | 1.60 | 2.00 | 80% | 70% |
| CF Montreal | WLWLL | 1.20 | 2.00 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Jul 2026 · CF Montreal 0–0 Toronto FC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.