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Serie A · Italy
Torino vs Monza prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Torino host Monza in the Serie A (Italy) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Torino had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Monza had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Torino's last 10 and 8 of Monza's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Torino averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Monza averaged 1.73 scored and 1.64 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Torino and 1.38 from Monza. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 34%, against 44%, 29% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Torino (green) and Monza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 1 Sep 2026 · Torino 0–1 Monza
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.