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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Tondela vs Torreense prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tondela host Torreense in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tondela 1–0 Torreense.
Going into the match, Tondela had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Torreense had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tondela's last 10 and 5 of Torreense's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tondela averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Torreense averaged 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Tondela and 0.95 from Torreense. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 31%, against 41%, 30% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tondela (green) and Torreense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.