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J1 League · Japan
Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tokyo Verdy host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tokyo Verdy 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Going into the match, Tokyo Verdy had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 27 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tokyo Verdy's last 10 and 5 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tokyo Verdy averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 1.75 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.66 goals from Tokyo Verdy and 1.89 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. From that it rates a home win at 11%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 66%, against 13%, 23% and 63% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tokyo Verdy (green) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | DDLDW | 0.80 | 1.00 | 40% | 20% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | WWWWL | 2.70 | 0.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win | 64% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.