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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Tlaxcala vs Piratas prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tlaxcala host Piratas in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 10 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.66, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tlaxcala 4–2 Piratas.
Going into the match, Tlaxcala had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 19. Piratas had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Tlaxcala's last 10 and 4 of Piratas's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tlaxcala averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Piratas averaged 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.74 goals from Tlaxcala and 1.60 from Piratas. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 35%, against 25%, 28% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tlaxcala (green) and Piratas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.45 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Piratas Win | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.