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Premier League · Jamaica
Tivoli Gardens vs Racing United prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 22:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tivoli Gardens host Racing United in the Premier League (Jamaica) on 12 Oct 2026, 22:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tivoli Gardens 3–4 Racing United.
Going into the match, Tivoli Gardens had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 18. Racing United had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Tivoli Gardens's last 10 and 4 of Racing United's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tivoli Gardens averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Racing United averaged 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Tivoli Gardens and 2.17 from Racing United. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 55%, against 31%, 30% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tivoli Gardens (green) and Racing United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tivoli Gardens | WDDWL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 40% | 40% |
| Racing United | WLWWL | 1.90 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Racing United Win | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.