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First Amateur Division · Belgium
Tienen vs Merelbeke prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tienen host Merelbeke in the First Amateur Division (Belgium) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.54, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tienen 0–0 Merelbeke.
Going into the match, Tienen had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Merelbeke had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Tienen's last 8 and 6 of Merelbeke's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tienen averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Merelbeke averaged 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Tienen and 1.20 from Merelbeke. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 30%, against 43%, 25% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tienen (green) and Merelbeke (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Tienen Win | 43% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.