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FIFA Asean Cup · International
Thailand vs Philippines prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Thailand host Philippines in the FIFA Asean Cup (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Thailand Win — Thailand to win. It was published at odds of 1.42, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Thailand 1–2 Philippines.
Going into the match, Thailand had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 7. Philippines had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 8, with 17 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Thailand's last 10 and 5 of Philippines's last 8; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Thailand averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Philippines averaged 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from Thailand and 0.72 from Philippines. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 12%, against 64%, 20% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Thailand (green) and Philippines (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | WWDLL | 2.20 | 0.70 | 30% | 50% |
| Philippines | DLLLW | 2.13 | 1.50 | 63% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Aug 2026 · Philippines 0–1 Thailand
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| Thailand Win | 64% | 1.42 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.79 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Thailand HT & FT | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.