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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Teruel vs Alcorcon prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Teruel host Alcorcon in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Teruel 1–0 Alcorcon.
Going into the match, Teruel had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 17. Alcorcon had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Teruel's last 10 and 5 of Alcorcon's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Teruel averaged 0.14 goals scored and 0.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Alcorcon averaged 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.59 goals from Teruel and 1.28 from Alcorcon. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 52%, against 21%, 27% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.62 |
| Alcorcon Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.