Home › League stats › Coppa Italia Serie D › Ternana vs Recanatese
Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy
Ternana vs Recanatese prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ternana host Recanatese in the Coppa Italia Serie D (Italy) on 21 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Draw — a draw. It was published at odds of 3.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 25% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ternana 5–1 Recanatese.
Going into the match, Ternana had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Recanatese had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ternana's last 10 and 7 of Recanatese's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ternana averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Recanatese averaged 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.07 goals from Ternana and 1.41 from Recanatese. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 14%, against 52%, 26% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 16%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana | WDWDW | 1.50 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
| Recanatese | LLLLD | 1.70 | 1.50 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Double Chance X2 | 47% | 1.91 |
| Ternana HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.