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Serie D - Girone E · Italy
Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ternana host Montevarchi Calcio in the Serie D - Girone E (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ternana 4–1 Montevarchi Calcio.
Going into the match, Ternana had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Montevarchi Calcio had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ternana's last 10 and 4 of Montevarchi Calcio's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ternana averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Montevarchi Calcio averaged 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Ternana and 0.89 from Montevarchi Calcio. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 17%, against 55%, 25% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ternana (green) and Montevarchi Calcio (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana | DWLDL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Montevarchi Calcio | WLDWL | 1.00 | 0.90 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.42 |
| Ternana Win | 55% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.74 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.09 |
| Ternana HT & FT | 37% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.